Football Intelligence Lab

2025 regular-season evidence. Current roster and schedule coverage: 2026.

Performance percentiles describe results within a role. They do not isolate player talent, establish coaching causality, or predict next season. Named scheme labels remain research hypotheses pending verification.

Two ways to win

Offensive production against defensive suppression. Higher and farther right is better.

-0.19-0.16-0.10-0.09-0.02-0.030.070.040.160.11ARI: Offensive EPA/play -0.015; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.087ARIATL: Offensive EPA/play -0.008; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.009ATLBAL: Offensive EPA/play 0.037; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.023BALBUF: Offensive EPA/play 0.140; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.008BUFCAR: Offensive EPA/play -0.027; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.060CARCHI: Offensive EPA/play 0.076; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.036CHICIN: Offensive EPA/play 0.011; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.124CINCLE: Offensive EPA/play -0.177; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.085CLEDAL: Offensive EPA/play 0.111; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.162DALDEN: Offensive EPA/play 0.037; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.060DENDET: Offensive EPA/play 0.072; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.011DETGB: Offensive EPA/play 0.124; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.043GBHOU: Offensive EPA/play -0.012; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.109HOUIND: Offensive EPA/play 0.080; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.016INDJAX: Offensive EPA/play 0.037; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.080JAXKC: Offensive EPA/play 0.043; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.007KCLA: Offensive EPA/play 0.149; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.067LALAC: Offensive EPA/play -0.015; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.076LACLV: Offensive EPA/play -0.192; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.028LVMIA: Offensive EPA/play -0.022; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.086MIAMIN: Offensive EPA/play -0.094; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.085MINNE: Offensive EPA/play 0.157; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.041NENO: Offensive EPA/play -0.079; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.048NONYG: Offensive EPA/play 0.044; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.100NYGNYJ: Offensive EPA/play -0.124; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.147NYJPHI: Offensive EPA/play 0.033; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.050PHIPIT: Offensive EPA/play 0.028; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.023PITSEA: Offensive EPA/play 0.039; Defensive EPA prevented/play 0.111SEASF: Offensive EPA/play 0.090; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.066SFTB: Offensive EPA/play 0.002; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.013TBTEN: Offensive EPA/play -0.148; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.104TENWAS: Offensive EPA/play 0.034; Defensive EPA prevented/play -0.152WASOffensive EPA/play (-0.19 to 0.16)Defensive EPA prevented/play (-0.16 to 0.11)

Style versus execution

Does a high shotgun rate accompany offensive success? This plot describes an association; personnel, opponent, and game state also matter.

0.41-0.190.53-0.100.64-0.020.760.070.870.16ARI: Mean game shotgun rate 0.712; Offensive EPA/play -0.015ARIATL: Mean game shotgun rate 0.803; Offensive EPA/play -0.008ATLBAL: Mean game shotgun rate 0.657; Offensive EPA/play 0.037BALBUF: Mean game shotgun rate 0.500; Offensive EPA/play 0.140BUFCAR: Mean game shotgun rate 0.669; Offensive EPA/play -0.027CARCHI: Mean game shotgun rate 0.529; Offensive EPA/play 0.076CHICIN: Mean game shotgun rate 0.818; Offensive EPA/play 0.011CINCLE: Mean game shotgun rate 0.669; Offensive EPA/play -0.177CLEDAL: Mean game shotgun rate 0.633; Offensive EPA/play 0.111DALDEN: Mean game shotgun rate 0.654; Offensive EPA/play 0.037DENDET: Mean game shotgun rate 0.517; Offensive EPA/play 0.072DETGB: Mean game shotgun rate 0.627; Offensive EPA/play 0.124GBHOU: Mean game shotgun rate 0.616; Offensive EPA/play -0.012HOUIND: Mean game shotgun rate 0.717; Offensive EPA/play 0.080INDJAX: Mean game shotgun rate 0.610; Offensive EPA/play 0.037JAXKC: Mean game shotgun rate 0.809; Offensive EPA/play 0.043KCLA: Mean game shotgun rate 0.414; Offensive EPA/play 0.149LALAC: Mean game shotgun rate 0.714; Offensive EPA/play -0.015LACLV: Mean game shotgun rate 0.663; Offensive EPA/play -0.192LVMIA: Mean game shotgun rate 0.714; Offensive EPA/play -0.022MIAMIN: Mean game shotgun rate 0.557; Offensive EPA/play -0.094MINNE: Mean game shotgun rate 0.556; Offensive EPA/play 0.157NENO: Mean game shotgun rate 0.789; Offensive EPA/play -0.079NONYG: Mean game shotgun rate 0.774; Offensive EPA/play 0.044NYGNYJ: Mean game shotgun rate 0.731; Offensive EPA/play -0.124NYJPHI: Mean game shotgun rate 0.776; Offensive EPA/play 0.033PHIPIT: Mean game shotgun rate 0.677; Offensive EPA/play 0.028PITSEA: Mean game shotgun rate 0.463; Offensive EPA/play 0.039SEASF: Mean game shotgun rate 0.545; Offensive EPA/play 0.090SFTB: Mean game shotgun rate 0.648; Offensive EPA/play 0.002TBTEN: Mean game shotgun rate 0.729; Offensive EPA/play -0.148TENWAS: Mean game shotgun rate 0.873; Offensive EPA/play 0.034WASMean game shotgun rate (0.41 to 0.87)Offensive EPA/play (-0.19 to 0.16)

Formation usage and return

Grouped by the schedule-reported head coach; interim changes still require verification. Both formations need at least 100 plays. A positive gap means higher EPA from shotgun; it does not establish that switching formations would improve results. Coordinators and quarterbacks share responsibility.

0.41-0.180.53-0.090.65-0.010.760.080.880.17JAX: Shotgun share 0.612; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.077JAXGB: Shotgun share 0.630; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.076GBHOU: Shotgun share 0.616; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.100HOULA: Shotgun share 0.413; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.110LAIND: Shotgun share 0.716; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.181INDMIA: Shotgun share 0.714; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.101MIADEN: Shotgun share 0.652; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.068DENBAL: Shotgun share 0.656; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.128BALDAL: Shotgun share 0.636; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.097DALPHI: Shotgun share 0.777; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.030PHIKC: Shotgun share 0.810; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.035KCLV: Shotgun share 0.669; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.128LVNYG: Shotgun share 0.770; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.053NYGNYJ: Shotgun share 0.730; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.071NYJSF: Shotgun share 0.539; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.108SFATL: Shotgun share 0.806; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.032ATLTB: Shotgun share 0.654; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.013TBTEN: Shotgun share 0.728; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.020TENARI: Shotgun share 0.712; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.104ARIBUF: Shotgun share 0.505; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.097BUFCIN: Shotgun share 0.820; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.010CINCLE: Shotgun share 0.673; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.009CLEDET: Shotgun share 0.518; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.015DETNE: Shotgun share 0.558; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.167NEWAS: Shotgun share 0.879; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.072WASNO: Shotgun share 0.789; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.137NOCAR: Shotgun share 0.670; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.039CARLAC: Shotgun share 0.712; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.034LACMIN: Shotgun share 0.556; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.014MINCHI: Shotgun share 0.524; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.025CHIPIT: Shotgun share 0.671; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play 0.023PITSEA: Shotgun share 0.463; Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play -0.040SEAShotgun share (0.41 to 0.88)Shotgun minus under-center EPA/play (-0.18 to 0.17)
team coach games plays shotgun_rate shotgun_plays under_center_plays shotgun_epa under_center_epa early_down_epa late_down_epa
JAX Liam Coen 17 1125 0.612 688 437 0.067 -0.010 0.022 0.098
GB Matt LaFleur 17 1030 0.630 649 381 0.152 0.077 0.073 0.281
HOU DeMeco Ryans 17 1144 0.616 705 439 0.027 -0.073 -0.012 0.005
LA Sean McVay 17 1105 0.413 456 649 0.214 0.104 0.159 0.110
IND Shane Steichen 17 1060 0.716 759 301 0.029 0.210 0.055 0.184
MIA Mike McDaniel 17 972 0.714 694 278 -0.051 0.050 0.020 -0.160
DEN Sean Payton 17 1122 0.652 732 390 0.061 -0.007 0.022 0.078
BAL John Harbaugh 17 994 0.656 652 342 -0.007 0.121 0.031 0.057
DAL Brian Schottenheimer 17 1167 0.636 742 425 0.146 0.049 0.095 0.157
PHI Nick Sirianni 17 1036 0.777 805 231 0.027 0.056 -0.002 0.153
KC Andy Reid 17 1097 0.810 889 208 0.050 0.015 0.025 0.096
LV Pete Carroll 17 985 0.669 659 326 -0.150 -0.278 -0.163 -0.271
NYG Brian Daboll 17 1141 0.770 879 262 0.057 0.003 -0.009 0.193
NYJ Aaron Glenn 17 1040 0.730 759 281 -0.143 -0.073 -0.086 -0.249
SF Kyle Shanahan 17 1100 0.539 593 507 0.140 0.032 0.024 0.331
ATL Raheem Morris 17 1079 0.806 870 209 -0.014 0.018 0.068 -0.270
TB Todd Bowles 17 1124 0.654 735 389 0.007 -0.006 0.015 -0.023
TEN Brian Callahan 17 1046 0.728 761 285 -0.143 -0.163 -0.106 -0.265
ARI Jonathan Gannon 17 1132 0.712 806 326 0.015 -0.089 -0.011 -0.021
BUF Sean McDermott 17 1106 0.505 559 547 0.188 0.091 0.110 0.263
CIN Zac Taylor 17 1097 0.820 899 198 0.009 0.019 -0.041 0.192
CLE Kevin Stefanski 17 1078 0.673 726 352 -0.174 -0.183 -0.164 -0.211
DET Dan Campbell 17 1088 0.518 564 524 0.079 0.064 0.082 0.035
NE Mike Vrabel 17 1063 0.558 593 470 0.231 0.064 0.121 0.270
WAS Dan Quinn 17 1036 0.879 911 125 0.043 -0.030 0.036 0.030
NO Kellen Moore 17 1111 0.789 877 234 -0.050 -0.186 -0.040 -0.190
CAR Dave Canales 17 1040 0.670 697 343 -0.014 -0.054 -0.046 0.040
LAC Jim Harbaugh 17 1126 0.712 802 324 -0.005 -0.040 -0.045 0.071
MIN Kevin O'Connell 17 986 0.556 548 438 -0.088 -0.101 -0.050 -0.242
CHI Ben Johnson 17 1140 0.524 597 543 0.087 0.063 0.074 0.081
PIT Mike Tomlin 17 1017 0.671 682 335 0.035 0.013 0.000 0.113
SEA Mike Macdonald 17 1042 0.463 482 560 0.018 0.058 0.044 0.008

Team performance profiles

team games plays offense_epa defense_epa_allowed net_epa performance_percentile
LA 17 1105 0.149 -0.067 0.216 98.438
NE 17 1063 0.157 -0.041 0.198 95.312
SEA 17 1042 0.039 -0.111 0.151 92.188
BUF 17 1106 0.140 -0.008 0.148 89.062
JAX 17 1125 0.037 -0.080 0.117 85.938
DEN 17 1122 0.037 -0.060 0.097 82.812
HOU 17 1144 -0.012 -0.109 0.097 79.688
PHI 17 1036 0.033 -0.050 0.083 76.562
GB 17 1030 0.124 0.043 0.082 73.438
IND 17 1060 0.080 0.016 0.064 70.312
DET 17 1088 0.072 0.011 0.061 67.188
LAC 17 1126 -0.015 -0.076 0.061 64.062
KC 17 1097 0.043 -0.007 0.050 60.938
CHI 17 1140 0.076 0.036 0.040 57.812
SF 17 1100 0.090 0.066 0.024 54.688
BAL 17 994 0.037 0.023 0.014 51.562
PIT 17 1017 0.028 0.023 0.005 48.438
MIN 17 986 -0.094 -0.085 -0.008 45.312
TB 17 1124 0.002 0.013 -0.010 42.188
ATL 17 1079 -0.008 0.009 -0.017 39.062
NO 17 1111 -0.079 -0.048 -0.030 35.938
DAL 17 1167 0.111 0.162 -0.051 32.812
NYG 17 1141 0.044 0.100 -0.055 29.688
CAR 17 1040 -0.027 0.060 -0.087 26.562
CLE 17 1078 -0.177 -0.085 -0.092 23.438
ARI 17 1132 -0.015 0.087 -0.102 20.312
MIA 17 972 -0.022 0.086 -0.108 17.188
CIN 17 1097 0.011 0.124 -0.113 14.062
WAS 17 1036 0.034 0.152 -0.118 10.938
LV 17 985 -0.192 0.028 -0.220 7.812
TEN 17 1046 -0.148 0.104 -0.252 4.688
NYJ 17 1040 -0.124 0.147 -0.271 1.562

Player production profiles

QB: 200 dropbacks; rusher: 100 carries; target: 50 targets. Play EPA includes teammates and situation. Receivers are grouped by target role, not claimed as individual route grades.

player_id player teams opportunities games epa_per_opportunity success_rate role performance_percentile
00-0039851 D.Maye NE 540 17 0.298 0.544 QB 98.684
00-0036264 J.Love GB 461 15 0.240 0.497 QB 96.053
00-0026498 M.Stafford LA 617 17 0.229 0.532 QB 93.421
00-0037834 B.Purdy SF 298 9 0.194 0.534 QB 90.789
00-0033106 J.Goff DET 614 17 0.174 0.484 QB 88.158
00-0033077 D.Prescott DAL 631 17 0.167 0.479 QB 85.526
00-0035710 D.Jones IND 409 13 0.139 0.496 QB 82.895
00-0033873 P.Mahomes KC 537 14 0.127 0.479 QB 80.263
00-0036972 M.Jones SF 304 8 0.127 0.523 QB 77.632
00-0034869 S.Darnold SEA 502 17 0.126 0.518 QB 75.000
00-0034857 J.Allen BUF 506 16 0.121 0.466 QB 72.368
00-0036442 J.Burrow CIN 278 8 0.099 0.489 QB 69.737
00-0039732 B.Nix DEN 638 17 0.091 0.442 QB 67.105
00-0039163 C.Stroud HOU 446 14 0.087 0.455 QB 64.474
00-0039918 C.Williams CHI 594 17 0.071 0.433 QB 61.842
00-0036971 T.Lawrence JAX 600 17 0.055 0.462 QB 59.211
00-0036389 J.Hurts PHI 486 16 0.053 0.432 QB 56.579
00-0023459 A.Rodgers PIT 526 16 0.030 0.432 QB 53.947
00-0034796 L.Jackson BAL 338 13 0.020 0.456 QB 51.316
00-0036212 T.Tagovailoa MIA 415 14 0.019 0.448 QB 48.684
00-0036355 J.Herbert LAC 566 16 0.008 0.452 QB 46.053
00-0039917 M.Penix ATL 290 9 -0.004 0.452 QB 43.421
00-0034855 B.Mayfield TB 584 17 -0.006 0.432 QB 40.789
00-0032268 M.Mariota WAS 244 10 -0.008 0.471 QB 38.158
00-0033119 J.Brissett ARI 530 13 -0.012 0.447 QB 35.526
00-0040691 J.Dart NYG 375 12 -0.021 0.416 QB 32.895
00-0029604 K.Cousins ATL 281 10 -0.023 0.441 QB 30.263
00-0039910 J.Daniels WAS 205 7 -0.024 0.444 QB 27.632
00-0040743 T.Shough NO 356 11 -0.028 0.438 QB 25.000
00-0039150 B.Young CAR 506 16 -0.043 0.427 QB 22.368
00-0036945 J.Fields NYJ 233 9 -0.093 0.412 QB 19.737
00-0026158 J.Flacco CIN, CLE 432 12 -0.114 0.410 QB 17.105
00-0039376 S.Rattler NO 272 9 -0.132 0.441 QB 14.474
00-0030565 G.Smith LV 503 15 -0.146 0.421 QB 11.842
00-0040676 C.Ward TEN 592 17 -0.192 0.368 QB 9.211
00-0039923 J.McCarthy MIN 273 10 -0.198 0.403 QB 6.579
00-0040704 D.Gabriel CLE 204 10 -0.220 0.319 QB 3.947
00-0040668 S.Sanders CLE 235 8 -0.299 0.336 QB 1.316
00-0039738 B.Corum LA 145 17 0.110 0.510 RUSH 98.980
00-0037256 R.White TB 133 17 0.078 0.481 RUSH 96.939
00-0036275 D.Swift CHI 223 16 0.069 0.480 RUSH 94.898
00-0033923 K.Hunt KC 163 17 0.059 0.479 RUSH 92.857
00-0039040 D.Achane MIA 238 16 0.059 0.382 RUSH 90.816
00-0036223 J.Taylor IND 324 17 0.058 0.444 RUSH 88.776
00-0038611 C.Rodriguez WAS 112 12 0.055 0.464 RUSH 86.735
00-0036997 J.Williams DAL 252 16 0.048 0.456 RUSH 84.694
00-0040734 T.Henderson NE 180 17 0.047 0.417 RUSH 82.653
00-0032764 D.Henry BAL 307 17 0.030 0.417 RUSH 80.612
00-0036158 J.Dobbins DEN 153 10 0.027 0.458 RUSH 78.571
00-0040236 K.Monangai CHI 171 16 0.021 0.462 RUSH 76.531
00-0037840 K.Williams LA 259 17 0.019 0.502 RUSH 74.490
00-0037248 J.Cook BUF 309 17 0.018 0.456 RUSH 72.449
00-0035685 D.Montgomery DET 159 17 0.003 0.434 RUSH 70.408
00-0037228 J.Warren PIT 211 16 -0.002 0.427 RUSH 68.367
00-0036919 K.Gainwell PIT 114 16 -0.006 0.456 RUSH 66.327
00-0040666 O.Hampton LAC 124 9 -0.006 0.419 RUSH 64.286
00-0036139 R.Dowdle CAR 237 17 -0.010 0.422 RUSH 62.245
00-0039139 J.Gibbs DET 243 17 -0.011 0.399 RUSH 60.204
00-0039165 Z.Charbonnet SEA 184 16 -0.012 0.413 RUSH 58.163
00-0033293 A.Jones MIN 132 12 -0.018 0.432 RUSH 56.122
00-0038597 C.Brown CIN 233 17 -0.018 0.399 RUSH 54.082
00-0035250 D.Singletary NYG 119 17 -0.023 0.387 RUSH 52.041
00-0037525 J.Mason MIN 159 16 -0.036 0.465 RUSH 50.000
00-0040242 J.Croskey-Merritt WAS 176 17 -0.037 0.426 RUSH 47.959
00-0038542 B.Robinson ATL 288 17 -0.043 0.413 RUSH 45.918
00-0039384 T.Tracy NYG 176 15 -0.056 0.369 RUSH 43.878
00-0038797 E.Wilson GB 125 16 -0.062 0.440 RUSH 41.837
00-0035700 J.Jacobs GB 234 15 -0.063 0.436 RUSH 39.796
00-0038134 K.Walker SEA 221 17 -0.065 0.380 RUSH 37.755
00-0033280 C.McCaffrey SF 311 17 -0.068 0.392 RUSH 35.714
00-0036973 T.Etienne JAX 260 17 -0.073 0.358 RUSH 33.673
00-0037263 T.Allgeier ATL 143 17 -0.081 0.399 RUSH 31.633
00-0034844 S.Barkley PHI 281 16 -0.086 0.377 RUSH 29.592
00-0035261 T.Pollard TEN 242 17 -0.090 0.393 RUSH 27.551
00-0039391 K.Vidal LAC 155 12 -0.091 0.361 RUSH 25.510
00-0038120 B.Hall NYJ 243 16 -0.092 0.407 RUSH 23.469
00-0040784 Q.Judkins CLE 231 14 -0.109 0.333 RUSH 21.429
00-0034791 N.Chubb HOU 122 15 -0.112 0.344 RUSH 19.388
00-0037197 I.Pacheco KC 118 13 -0.116 0.347 RUSH 17.347
00-0036555 C.Hubbard CAR 135 15 -0.116 0.407 RUSH 15.306
00-0040715 C.Skattebo NYG 102 8 -0.119 0.412 RUSH 13.265
00-0036875 R.Stevenson NE 131 14 -0.140 0.374 RUSH 11.224
00-0040583 W.Marks HOU 196 16 -0.149 0.362 RUSH 9.184
00-0040730 R.Harvey DEN 147 17 -0.156 0.361 RUSH 7.143
00-0039361 B.Irving TB 173 10 -0.206 0.347 RUSH 5.102
00-0033906 A.Kamara NO 131 11 -0.220 0.321 RUSH 3.061
00-0040122 A.Jeanty LV 267 17 -0.244 0.318 RUSH 1.020
00-0038933 D.Kincaid BUF 50 12 0.788 0.620 TARGET 99.597
00-0039075 P.Nacua LA 166 16 0.697 0.705 TARGET 98.790
00-0031588 S.Diggs NE 102 17 0.690 0.676 TARGET 97.984
00-0033288 G.Kittle SF 69 11 0.671 0.681 TARGET 97.177
00-0037664 A.Pierce IND 84 15 0.664 0.536 TARGET 96.371
00-0037247 G.Pickens DAL 138 17 0.643 0.638 TARGET 95.565
00-0038124 C.Watson GB 55 10 0.587 0.618 TARGET 94.758
00-0040126 C.Loveland CHI 83 16 0.572 0.590 TARGET 93.952
00-0038543 J.Smith-Njigba SEA 163 17 0.556 0.632 TARGET 93.145
00-0037240 J.Williams DET 102 17 0.551 0.559 TARGET 92.339
00-0035659 T.McLaurin WAS 60 10 0.529 0.617 TARGET 91.532
00-0038935 B.Strange JAX 60 12 0.523 0.633 TARGET 90.726
00-0039410 R.Flournoy DAL 56 13 0.511 0.571 TARGET 89.919
00-0039916 R.Pearsall SF 53 9 0.504 0.623 TARGET 89.113
00-0040735 L.Burden CHI 60 15 0.501 0.583 TARGET 88.306
00-0036912 D.Smith PHI 114 17 0.477 0.535 TARGET 87.500
00-0034351 D.Goedert PHI 82 15 0.441 0.585 TARGET 86.694
00-0033090 H.Henry NE 87 17 0.433 0.632 TARGET 85.887
00-0036894 P.Freiermuth PIT 54 15 0.432 0.556 TARGET 85.081
00-0037744 T.McBride ARI 170 17 0.428 0.600 TARGET 84.274
00-0039849 M.Harrison ARI 74 12 0.420 0.554 TARGET 83.468
00-0033555 M.Hollins NE 65 14 0.418 0.631 TARGET 82.661
00-0039793 A.Barner SEA 68 16 0.411 0.647 TARGET 81.855
00-0037816 R.Doubs GB 86 16 0.403 0.558 TARGET 81.048
00-0039064 Z.Flowers BAL 119 17 0.390 0.571 TARGET 80.242
00-0033307 K.Bourne SF 53 14 0.388 0.642 TARGET 79.435
00-0030506 T.Kelce KC 109 17 0.371 0.587 TARGET 78.629
00-0034348 C.Sutton DEN 125 17 0.365 0.536 TARGET 77.823
00-0036410 T.Higgins CIN 99 15 0.364 0.545 TARGET 77.016
00-0035689 D.Knox BUF 50 16 0.350 0.640 TARGET 76.210
00-0036040 J.Johnson NO 102 17 0.345 0.559 TARGET 75.403
00-0036613 J.Waddle MIA 100 16 0.345 0.560 TARGET 74.597
00-0034383 D.Schultz HOU 107 17 0.343 0.579 TARGET 73.790
00-0035640 D.Metcalf PIT 99 15 0.333 0.505 TARGET 72.984
00-0040730 R.Harvey DEN 58 17 0.329 0.500 TARGET 72.177
00-0036554 N.Collins HOU 121 15 0.325 0.488 TARGET 71.371
00-0036963 A.St. Brown DET 172 17 0.323 0.535 TARGET 70.565
00-0038606 P.Washington JAX 97 15 0.306 0.526 TARGET 69.758
00-0033280 C.McCaffrey SF 129 17 0.303 0.550 TARGET 68.952
00-0035662 M.Brown KC 74 16 0.302 0.554 TARGET 68.145
00-0030279 K.Allen LAC 122 17 0.286 0.541 TARGET 67.339
00-0038544 Q.Johnston LAC 84 13 0.285 0.440 TARGET 66.532
00-0033921 C.Godwin TB 52 9 0.283 0.596 TARGET 65.726
00-0035676 A.Brown PHI 121 15 0.278 0.529 TARGET 64.919
00-0035535 D.Slayton NYG 65 14 0.277 0.508 TARGET 64.113
00-0039338 B.Bowers LV 87 12 0.268 0.563 TARGET 63.306
00-0038542 B.Robinson ATL 103 17 0.258 0.544 TARGET 62.500
00-0036358 C.Lamb DAL 117 13 0.248 0.547 TARGET 61.694
00-0040130 J.Higgins HOU 69 17 0.243 0.507 TARGET 60.887
00-0040189 O.Gadsden LAC 69 15 0.239 0.638 TARGET 60.081
00-0038563 T.Tucker LV 92 17 0.237 0.446 TARGET 59.274
00-0031381 D.Adams LA 114 14 0.237 0.518 TARGET 58.468
00-0039919 R.Odunze CHI 91 12 0.230 0.462 TARGET 57.661
00-0037239 C.Olave NO 156 16 0.228 0.500 TARGET 56.855
00-0038618 X.Hutchinson HOU 57 15 0.226 0.544 TARGET 56.048
00-0036244 C.Parkinson LA 56 14 0.224 0.643 TARGET 55.242
00-0036900 J.Chase CIN 185 16 0.224 0.530 TARGET 54.435
00-0037238 D.London ATL 113 12 0.219 0.540 TARGET 53.629
00-0037291 J.Nailor MIN 54 17 0.214 0.519 TARGET 52.823
00-0035229 T.Hockenson MIN 66 15 0.214 0.500 TARGET 52.016
00-0040124 T.McMillan CAR 122 17 0.207 0.500 TARGET 51.210
00-0036970 K.Pitts ATL 119 17 0.207 0.555 TARGET 50.403
00-0039894 X.Worthy KC 73 14 0.203 0.466 TARGET 49.597
00-0039067 R.Rice KC 79 8 0.203 0.519 TARGET 48.790
00-0038559 Mi.Wilson ARI 127 17 0.203 0.504 TARGET 47.984
00-0038619 A.Iosivas CIN 58 15 0.201 0.500 TARGET 47.177
00-0039901 K.Coleman BUF 62 12 0.200 0.581 TARGET 46.371
00-0036252 M.Pittman IND 114 17 0.196 0.553 TARGET 45.565
00-0039893 B.Thomas JAX 91 14 0.189 0.484 TARGET 44.758
00-0039139 J.Gibbs DET 94 17 0.189 0.489 TARGET 43.952
00-0038041 J.Ferguson DAL 103 17 0.185 0.476 TARGET 43.145
00-0038994 J.Addison MIN 79 14 0.177 0.481 TARGET 42.339
00-0035719 D.Samuel WAS 100 16 0.176 0.540 TARGET 41.532
00-0036973 T.Etienne JAX 52 17 0.176 0.423 TARGET 40.726
00-0036415 V.Jefferson TEN 52 14 0.172 0.500 TARGET 39.919
00-0037840 K.Williams LA 50 16 0.171 0.440 TARGET 39.113
00-0036223 J.Taylor IND 56 16 0.165 0.446 TARGET 38.306
00-0030061 Z.Ertz WAS 73 13 0.160 0.507 TARGET 37.500
00-0037809 C.Okonkwo TEN 79 17 0.160 0.443 TARGET 36.694
00-0034827 D.Moore CHI 85 17 0.160 0.459 TARGET 35.887
00-0040736 M.Taylor NYJ 66 13 0.147 0.576 TARGET 35.081
00-0040128 T.Warren IND 114 17 0.138 0.482 TARGET 34.274
00-0038117 W.Robinson NYG 141 16 0.138 0.454 TARGET 33.468
00-0039847 T.Johnson NYG 74 15 0.119 0.405 TARGET 32.661
00-0033908 C.Kupp SEA 71 16 0.108 0.577 TARGET 31.855
00-0038997 J.Downs IND 88 16 0.098 0.500 TARGET 31.048
00-0039868 T.Franklin DEN 107 17 0.091 0.467 TARGET 30.242
00-0034960 J.Meyers JAX, LV 110 16 0.091 0.591 TARGET 29.435
00-0031408 M.Evans TB 62 8 0.085 0.468 TARGET 28.629
00-0037261 K.Shakir BUF 97 16 0.077 0.433 TARGET 27.823
00-0040584 G.Helm TEN 55 16 0.070 0.455 TARGET 27.016
00-0038976 M.Mims DEN 51 14 0.069 0.412 TARGET 26.210
00-0039915 L.McConkey LAC 106 16 0.068 0.491 TARGET 25.403
00-0040129 E.Egbuka TB 128 17 0.056 0.422 TARGET 24.597
00-0036309 D.Mooney ATL 72 15 0.051 0.375 TARGET 23.790
00-0036919 K.Gainwell PIT 85 17 0.046 0.412 TARGET 22.984
00-0033881 E.Engram DEN 77 16 0.045 0.390 TARGET 22.177
00-0038129 C.Otton TB 82 15 0.038 0.488 TARGET 21.371
00-0034753 M.Andrews BAL 70 17 0.022 0.500 TARGET 20.565
00-0040705 C.Dike TEN 74 16 0.021 0.419 TARGET 19.758
00-0040663 H.Fannin CLE 108 16 0.013 0.417 TARGET 18.952
00-0033858 J.Smith PIT 55 17 0.010 0.455 TARGET 18.145
00-0036139 R.Dowdle CAR 50 16 -0.018 0.380 TARGET 17.339
00-0036259 J.Jennings SF 93 15 -0.024 0.484 TARGET 16.532
00-0039032 T.Spears TEN 50 12 -0.033 0.360 TARGET 15.726
00-0037740 G.Wilson NYJ 60 7 -0.034 0.400 TARGET 14.919
00-0037545 R.Shaheed NO, SEA 92 18 -0.047 0.457 TARGET 14.113
00-0032385 S.Shepard TB 54 13 -0.052 0.463 TARGET 13.306
00-0035208 O.Zaccheaus CHI 66 14 -0.058 0.439 TARGET 12.500
00-0039342 X.Legette CAR 64 15 -0.064 0.391 TARGET 11.694
00-0037837 C.Austin PIT 55 14 -0.075 0.436 TARGET 10.887
00-0036322 J.Jefferson MIN 142 17 -0.097 0.493 TARGET 10.081
00-0034844 S.Barkley PHI 51 15 -0.097 0.373 TARGET 9.274
00-0040170 E.Ayomanor TEN 89 16 -0.108 0.404 TARGET 8.468
00-0038597 C.Brown CIN 89 17 -0.116 0.427 TARGET 7.661
00-0039040 D.Achane MIA 85 16 -0.120 0.412 TARGET 6.855
00-0039880 M.Washington MIA 65 17 -0.151 0.400 TARGET 6.048
00-0032211 T.Lockett LV, TEN 56 17 -0.153 0.411 TARGET 5.242
00-0040122 A.Jeanty LV 73 16 -0.163 0.370 TARGET 4.435
00-0039066 M.Mayer LV 50 12 -0.197 0.460 TARGET 3.629
00-0039890 A.Mitchell IND, NYJ 74 16 -0.218 0.351 TARGET 2.823
00-0036407 J.Jeudy CLE 106 17 -0.305 0.358 TARGET 2.016
00-0034775 C.Kirk HOU 53 11 -0.399 0.340 TARGET 1.210
00-0036997 J.Williams DAL 51 15 -0.446 0.255 TARGET 0.403

Source: nflverse. Data freshness ยท Download measurements and game-bootstrap intervals