Wal-Bel AI
The numbers, not the noise
Opponent-adjusted ratings for every team and player, solved from 532,376 plays. No opinions, no hot takes — a model that produces the same answer every time you ask it.
Read this first
Against the closing spread this model runs at 48.7% — a coin flip, and below the 52.4% you would need to break even. It is not a betting edge and is not offered as one. Here is exactly how accurate it is.
Power ratings
points better than an average team, neutral field| # | Team | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo | BUF | +4.41 |
| 2 | Baltimore | BAL | +3.40 |
| 3 | Kansas City | KC | +2.90 |
| 4 | New England | NE | +0.94 |
| 5 | Los Angeles (C) | LAC | +0.88 |
| 6 | Denver | DEN | +0.70 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | PIT | +0.31 |
| 8 | Indianapolis | IND | -0.79 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | CIN | -0.89 |
| 10 | Houston | HOU | -1.00 |
| 11 | Miami | MIA | -1.20 |
| 12 | Jacksonville | JAX | -1.53 |
| 13 | Cleveland | CLE | -2.39 |
| 14 | Tennessee | TEN | -3.65 |
| 15 | Las Vegas | LV | -3.79 |
| 16 | New York (J) | NYJ | -4.74 |
AFC
| # | Team | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | GB | +3.30 |
| 2 | Philadelphia | PHI | +2.78 |
| 3 | Los Angeles (R) | LA | +2.73 |
| 4 | San Francisco | SF | +2.67 |
| 5 | Seattle | SEA | +1.99 |
| 6 | Detroit | DET | +1.53 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay | TB | +1.50 |
| 8 | Minnesota | MIN | +1.45 |
| 9 | Dallas | DAL | +0.41 |
| 10 | New Orleans | NO | +0.11 |
| 11 | Chicago | CHI | -0.80 |
| 12 | Arizona | ARI | -1.19 |
| 13 | Atlanta | ATL | -1.28 |
| 14 | Washington | WAS | -2.10 |
| 15 | New York (G) | NYG | -2.96 |
| 16 | Carolina | CAR | -3.69 |
NFC
Week 1, 2026
positive favours the home team| Matchup | Wal-Bel | Home win | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ SEA | +3.2 | 60% | +3.5 |
| SF @ LA | +2.2 | 57% | +3.5 |
| CHI @ CAR | -0.7 | 48% | -2.5 |
| TB @ CIN | -0.2 | 49% | +3.5 |
| NO @ DET | +3.6 | 62% | +7.0 |
| BUF @ HOU | -3.2 | 39% | -1.5 |
| BAL @ IND | -2.0 | 43% | -3.5 |
| CLE @ JAX | +3.0 | 60% | +7.5 |
| ATL @ PIT | +3.8 | 62% | +3.0 |
| NYJ @ TEN | +3.3 | 61% | +3.0 |
| ARI @ LAC | +4.2 | 64% | +10.5 |
| MIA @ LV | -0.4 | 49% | +3.5 |
| GB @ MIN | +0.3 | 51% | +1.5 |
| WAS @ PHI | +7.0 | 72% | +4.5 |
| DAL @ NYG | -1.2 | 46% | -2.5 |
| DEN @ KC | +4.4 | 64% | +3.0 |
Leaders
2025 regular seasonQuarterbacks
30 deep
Running backs
50 deep
Receivers
50 deep
Tight ends
40 deep
Pass rush
40 deep
Coverage
40 deep
Kicking
40 deep