Wal-Bel AI

The numbers, not the noise

Opponent-adjusted ratings for every team and player, solved from 532,376 plays. No opinions, no hot takes — a model that produces the same answer every time you ask it.

Read this first

Against the closing spread this model runs at 48.7% — a coin flip, and below the 52.4% you would need to break even. It is not a betting edge and is not offered as one. Here is exactly how accurate it is.

Power ratings

points better than an average team, neutral field

#	Team		Rating
1	Buffalo	BUF	+4.42
2	Baltimore	BAL	+3.40
3	Kansas City	KC	+2.91
4	New England	NE	+0.94
5	Los Angeles (C)	LAC	+0.89
6	Denver	DEN	+0.70
7	Pittsburgh	PIT	+0.30
8	Indianapolis	IND	-0.79
9	Cincinnati	CIN	-0.89
10	Houston	HOU	-1.00
11	Miami	MIA	-1.21
12	Jacksonville	JAX	-1.52
13	Cleveland	CLE	-2.39
14	Tennessee	TEN	-3.64
15	Las Vegas	LV	-3.79
16	New York (J)	NYJ	-4.74

AFC

#	Team		Rating
1	Green Bay	GB	+3.30
2	Philadelphia	PHI	+2.77
3	Los Angeles (R)	LA	+2.73
4	San Francisco	SF	+2.67
5	Seattle	SEA	+1.99
6	Detroit	DET	+1.54
7	Tampa Bay	TB	+1.50
8	Minnesota	MIN	+1.45
9	Dallas	DAL	+0.41
10	New Orleans	NO	+0.10
11	Chicago	CHI	-0.80
12	Arizona	ARI	-1.19
13	Atlanta	ATL	-1.28
14	Washington	WAS	-2.09
15	New York (G)	NYG	-2.97
16	Carolina	CAR	-3.70

NFC

Week 1, 2026

positive favours the home team

Matchup	Wal-Bel	Home win	Vegas
NE @ SEA	+3.2	60%	+3.5
SF @ LA	+2.2	57%	+3.5
CHI @ CAR	-0.7	48%	-2.5
TB @ CIN	-0.2	49%	+3.5
NO @ DET	+3.6	62%	+7.0
BUF @ HOU	-3.2	39%	-1.5
BAL @ IND	-2.0	43%	-3.5
CLE @ JAX	+3.0	60%	+7.5
ATL @ PIT	+3.8	62%	+3.0
NYJ @ TEN	+3.3	61%	+3.0
ARI @ LAC	+4.2	64%	+10.5
MIA @ LV	-0.4	49%	+3.5
GB @ MIN	+0.3	51%	+1.5
WAS @ PHI	+7.0	72%	+4.5
DAL @ NYG	-1.2	46%	-2.5
DEN @ KC	+4.4	64%	+3.0